Feb. 20th, 2016

heron61: (Gryphon - emphasis and strong feelings)
Currently, 3 states have decided on their delegates for each party's presidential nominee, and I'm fairly happy with the results. I'm in the odd position of not really caring one way or the other who gets the Democratic nomination. I prefer Sanders' policies, but in addition to the fact that having a female president would I think be good for the US, I also think Clinton is likely more electable. However, I'm not certain of this, and the best indication I can think of is whether she can win the Democratic nomination. If by some (rather unlikely from my PoV) chance, Sanders wins the nomination, then (at least from my PoV) he's clearly also more likely to win the presidency.

I'm far more interested in the Republican nomination and remain thrilled that Trump is in first place. I think he'll be a disaster for the Republican party and will be easy for either Clinton or Sanders to beat. I'd also be happy with Cruz. The only Republican candidate who worries me is Rubio - his policies are different from Cruz & Trump (whose policies' are exceedingly similar), but from my PoV Rubio is no less horrific, merely differently so.

Also, regardless of whether or not Obama is able to replace Scalia, Justice Ginsburg is the oldest justice and I'd like for her to have a chance to retire and be replaced by a liberal, thus insuring the first liberal court for a very long time. From my PoV, this is vastly more important than whether Clinton or Sanders becomes president, as is the fact of either of them becoming president rather than any of the Republican options.

My other hope for the presidential race is that regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, they do so decisively and well before the convention, which seems likely given there are only two people in the race.

OTOH, if both I and the nation is very lucky, there will be at least 3 Republican candidates, and hopefully 4 or 5 by the time of the Republican convention and there will be a messy convention fight the likes of which we haven't seen in 40 years, or better yet a "brokered" convention, where back room dealing decides the candidate, which hasn't happened in more than 60 years, and since the choice would almost certainly not be Trump. At this point, Trumps' hideous supporters would be justifiably upset, and Trump would very likely run as an independent. In fact, if Trump runs as an independent, I don't care who the Republicans nominate, since they'll lose very badly with Trump getting (at my best guess) around 7-15% of the vote.

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